POPULATION BOOM SET

TO HIT COASTAL AREAS

For immediate release – Thursday, 1 October 2009

Revised estimates of Australia’s population growth over the next 40 years have profound implications for the nation’s coastal communities, according to the National Sea Change Taskforce, which represents non-metropolitan coastal councils.

After analysing the estimates that were prepared by Federal Treasury, the Taskforce believes the projected growth is likely to increase the population in Australia’s non-metro coastal areas by up to 90%.

The revised Treasury projections indicate the national population will increase to 35 million by 2049 - 7 million higher than previously thought and 13 million higher than the current population.

Taskforce Executive Director, Alan Stokes, said the analysis indicated that at least 4.8 million of the additional population would need to be accommodated in non-metro coastal areas because of limits to the capacity of the capital cities to absorb the expected growth.

“If you add in the million or more ‘baby boomers’ who plan to retire to the coast between 2010 and 2026, this will expand the current population in non-metro coastal areas from 6.4 million to 12.2 million by 2049,” Mr Stokes said.

East Gippsland Shire’s Mayor and Sea Change Taskforce member Cr Mendy Urie said a 90 percent rise in regional population would mean a lift from 42,000 to almost 88,000 over the period.

“Given improved access to the region and the inherent appeal of East Gippsland, this is quite a realistic projection,” she said.

 “This being the case it underscores the need for continued expenditure on infrastructure as well as careful, planning to ensure our unique lifestyle is preserved.

“We must also factor in climate change effects over this period that could impact on coastline development.”

Mr Stokes said the analysis by the Taskforce indicated the capital cities are not likely to grow by more than 60% by 2049, from 13.7 million to 21.9 million, which represents an increase of 8.2 million people.

“The capital cities have doubled in size over the past 40 years but it is most unlikely they can double again in the next 40 years due to a range of factors including geographical constraints and limits to water supplies,” he said.

“It is also unlikely that there will be a large-scale movement of people to Australia’s inland areas. ABS population data indicates that over the last three years the population in inland areas has dropped from 1.9 million to 1.3 million, a decline of 30%. It is difficult to imagine this trend can be reversed in the foreseeable future.”

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About the National Sea Change Taskforce

The National Sea Change Taskforce was established in 2004 as a national body to represent the interests of coastal councils and communities experiencing the effects of rapid population and tourism growth. It currently has more than 60 member councils in all Australian states.

Web – www.seachangetaskforce.org.au

ENDS

Further information:   

Mike Quist (local) 5153 9500

Alan Stokes – Tel: 02 9908 2401 Mob: 0411 592 269